Thursday, 3 August 2017

UPDATE: The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd

TMRVL (The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd) posted on the blog at 193 on 19th May 2017.

THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD: CMP 150, Exiting and Booking Loss seems to be the best option in front of us right now, since the company will soon announce quarterly results the june quarter and if the company repeats the trend of march quarter losses. It will be hard to sell TMRVL even at double digits.
At 150 we book a loss of 22%.

Tuesday, 18 July 2017

VALUE PICK: INEOS Styrolution India Ltd






INTERESTING STOCK TO WATCH:

INEOS STYROLUTION INDIA LTD
MCAP: 1700 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 995/-
CURRENT P/E: Around 25.

NEGATIVE: Slow Growth.
POSITIVE: Sectoral bullishness.

INEOS is one of the two main manufacturers in Indian market for ABS (Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) The other company is Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd. INEOS is a MNC and one of the world leaders in Specialty Chemical, Polymer space.

INEOS and Bhansali both are having a capacity of 80,000 MT each.
While demand for ABS in INDIA is at 2,75,000 MT and is expected to grow by close to 15% CAGR in the medium term. Bhansali recently announced the bull market Expansion plans to take the total capacity to 1,37,000 MT in the short-term and to 2,00,000 MT in the long term funding it with internal accruals.

If the sector is getting hot, We would expect this MNC to manage their business better and focus on it as well.

INEOS promoters hold 75% stake in the company, Making it a potential MNC delisting candidate.
Valuations wise, INEOS is cheaper compared to Bhansali.

FY17 full year nos:-
















When the markets are clocking all time highs, specialty chemical and this sector has been buzzing. INEOS looks like a good opportunity which is not over-valued in this market. A 40% rally from CMP will take INEOS close to 1400 at a valuation of close to 35 P/E against FY17 earnings. With FY18 expected to be better for the sector.

Technically, INEOS is having a breakout on the daily charts closing above 1000. Its a 5 years cup and handle breakout on the charts. :-


















Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have INEOS Styrolution India Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

VST TILLERS TRACTORS UP 30% IN 1 MONTH

VST TILLERS UP ALMOST 30% IN 1 MONTH.

Update: I posted VST Tillers Tractors Ltd on the blog on 2nd June 2017 when the stock was trading at 1920. I wrote about a 30% rally and on 7th July 2017 the stock touched a high of 2495. Clocking a gain of 29.95% in just 1 month. Hope readers enjoyed VST.

Fresh write-up coming on the blog today at 2:30 PM.

Friday, 2 June 2017

MONSOON PICK: VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD



















INTERESTING STOCK TO WATCH:

VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD
MCAP: 1600 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 1920/-
CURRENT P/E: Around 23.

NEGATIVE: Slow Growth.
POSITIVE: Sectoral bullishness

VST is India's largest manufacturer of Power Tillers (Walking Tractors).
VST is also into tractors and has brands such as SHAKTI.
VST is is also into Rice Transplanter, Power Reaper, Engines, Agriculture Implements.

AGRICULTURE stocks should be in focus as this year the monsoon is expected to be normal. The start of the monsoon has also been satisfactory, With MODI govt agenda of doubling the Farmers income by 2022. We can expect good time for Agriculture theme stocks going forward.

If we compare VST against ESCORTS, VST has better margins, slower growth and better valuation at CMP. ESCORTS with lower margins, turnaround play is at a P/E of 50+ which is more than double of what VST is presently hovering at.

If we look at VST monthly chart, you would notice every year since 2009 except once or twice the Stock has rallied in the month of June or July. Sometimes there are modest rallies of 8-10% sometimes mega rallies of 30-40%. I believe this year with everyone gung ho on Monsoon and market in the bulls grip. VST may be a good opportunity to buy and hold for a month or two.

Take a look at their website: http://www.vsttillers.com/

Technically there is a cup and handle breakout on the monthly charts for the stock above 2060 levels.


Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Thursday, 1 June 2017

UPDATES: B&A LTD, THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD.

First of all, apologies for delayed update.
I met with a mishap at the gym last week and fractured my knee cap and now on bed rest and pain killers.
Results for both B&A LTD and TMRVL (The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd) came out in the meantime.

B&A LTD: like all other tea companies has given negative results this year, which is contrary to my expectations.
The stock had moved from 200 to 355 and is again available around 200 now. Even though results are bad I don't think it is any different from other tea companies, I still believe that the TEA sector can give big movements this year. The tea price trend has to translate into earnings even though it is not happening just yet. But that is how TEA as a sector is, It is known to test your patience a lot.

People who have patience should hold and freshers can also consider entering at these levels. At 60 crore market cap it does look undervalued.

THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD: For the march quarter suddenly TMRVL posted losses, and the stock has corrected enough to price in bad numbers. As of now it is not known what could have caused the company to suddenly report losses. Whether any operational changes or transition caused one off or whether the company failed to realize profits in normal business remains a question. Given the full year numbers, TMRVL remains very cheap compared to all other peers in the branded clothing sector. The news of 18% GST on branded clothing got a lot of hype and that has pushed the stock lower too. It seems the stock has now found some support near 150 levels and should start journey for a recovery.

Friday, 19 May 2017

Value Pick - The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd - Being Human

Image result for being human poster salman khan
The Ace Investor
The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd
  Listed on both NSE: TMRVL & BSE: 540210
Currently trading around 193 with a market cap of around 440 crores.
Promoters hold 42.95% stake.
It has a Total Debt of around 19 crores.

The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd (TMRVL) is the demerged branded clothing business of Mandhana Industries. TMRVL is in the business of design, manufacture, retail, distribute: men, women, kids clothing & accessories as the Global Licensee of the brand Being Human till atleast 2020.

Being Human Clothing needs no introduction, The fashion brand under the Being Human NGO run by one of India's biggest superstar Salman Khan. The NGO with its philanthropic activities has evolved wonderfully over the years. Its fashion venture Being Human Clothing has also done great. 

Today TMRVL operates: 60 EBO (Exclusive Brand Outlets) stores of Being Human across India and 5 EBOs overseas in Nepal, West Asia, France, Mauritius. The company as per reported data as on Oct end 2016 had 650 Point of Sales in Total for Being Human by EBOs, MBOs, Franchisees and Online partnerships.

The company now wants to focus on Tier II, Tier III cities by opening 100 new Being Human stores in the next two-three years as well as focus on going global as per news reports.

As per recent Media Reports quoting the management. The company besides Being Human is keen to get into similar business partnerships with other celebrities not only with Bollywood Starts but also the Indian Sports Fraternity by releasing their labels and paying them royalties.

Lets now take a look at financials and valuations of the company :-

As you can see TMRVL is undervalued compared to two of its peers,  TMRVL is available at a P/E of 14x with Market Cap to sales of 1.85 while Indian Terrain trades at a P/E of 31x and KKCL trades at a P/E of 25x.

Both Indian Terrain and TMRVL have similar percentage of promoter stake pledged. So that should not be a major driving force in the rating mismatch.

At valuations of 30x TMRVL should trade at 417. That is a potential upside of 111% against current price of 197.

TMRVL enjoys the advantage of indirect and direct marketing and endorsement by Salman Khan as he sports the Being Human Clothing all the time at Public Appearances as well as in his movies. The key negative here would be the dependence on one brand Being Human and the Brand's dependence on one man Salman Khan.
However, The company's plan to tie up with other celebrities can negate this risk and dependence on Being Human Brand.
Plus: Salman Khan's friendships get him a lot of Models (other bollywood celebs) for this brand,  If Salman can get someone like SRK to also endorse the brand its going to get a lot of hype.

As per latest Shareholding Pattern filing for quarter ended March 17- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 12.74% stake and Ramesh Damani holds 1.03% stake. Recently, ChrysCapital acquired 3% stake at Rs 200 per share.

Technically on the charts: If we plot the daily line chart we have a sort of falling wedge breakout in TMRVL which activates on closing above 200.


All in All, I feel this is a good under valued opportunity available in the market as the stock has not run up at all. With Salman's Tubelight releasing this Eid on 23rd June it can be another trigger for the stock. Tubelight has a Cameo of Shah Rukh Khan and both the superstars are going to be seen together on the silver screen after 10 years.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.



Thursday, 6 April 2017

NCL INDUSTRIES UP ALMOST 90% IN 4 MONTHS.


NCL INDUSTRIES LTD.
NCL INDUSTRIES posted on the blog at Rs 118 on 8th December 2016.
 The stock touched a high of nearly 224 yesterday.
In just 4 months the stock has moved up by almost 90%.
This was a simple choice on the demonetization theme.
Can hold free shares from hereon for further up move.
In my post I had written below 109 the stock would be weak. The stock went down till 109.30 after that and respected the support of 109 beautifully..
Hope all the readers enjoyed!!!

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

CAREER POINT - CL Educate IPO - Peer re-rating?


INTERESTING STOCK TO WATCH:

CAREER POINT 
MCAP: 200 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 111/-
CURRENT P/E: Around 13.90.

NEGATIVE: Revenue Growth missing.
POSITIVE: Sectoral bullishness, Debt Free, Cheap Valuations, Technically ripe for a move

Career Point is an education company.
They provide coaching and education services right from Pre-School to Ph.D.

Education has been out of theme off late but with the IPO of CL EDUCATE there can be some action in the sector.

CL Educate owner of the brand Career Launcher is out with an IPO that is priced at a P/E of 86 against FY15 nos and at a P/E of 100+ against the FY16 nos. 

In such a scenario, Career Point even though small in size is at throwaway valuations compared to the over-valuation of Career Launcher (CLEDUCATE).

Even another peer MT Educare is trading at a P/E of 28.

Career Point has had good stable financial performance, however there has been no turnover growth yet but that's expected to kick in soon as per the Annual Report. Career Point also has a NBFC subsidiary named Sarjan Finance.



Technically stock has witnessed a huge correction, right from 700s in 2010 the stock has only crashed having given temporary rallies. I think with a short-term, mid-term horizon in mind this can be a good stock with CL Educate IPO triggering a re-rating of sorts. SL of 98 should be good.



Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have CAREER POINT in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.



Thursday, 9 March 2017

B&A LTD - Tea is the sector for 2017 - Value Pick



B&A LIMITED
BSE: 508136
BSE SYMBOL: BNALTD BSE CATEGORY: XD
CMP: 230-240
MARKET CAP: Around 70 Crores.
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIALS FY16:-
SALES: 157.65 Crores
NET PROFIT: 9.81 Crores
EPS: 31.65
PROMOTER HOLDING: 59.15%
CURRENT P/E AGAINST FY16 EPS: 7.50

Friends as I had expressed on 19th December 2016 on the blog in the post "Tea & Plantations up next" that TEA and Plantation stocks are going to do well in 2017. In the post I had expressed hopes for 30-60% gains in the stocks in short-term.
You can see how well the stocks mentioned have performed in just 3 months. Harrison Malayalam posted at 66, made high of 94.35. Up 42.95%. Dhunseri Tea & Industries Ltd posted at 290, made high of 325. Up 12%. Mcleod Russell Ltd posted at 149, made high of 179.75. Up 20.63%. Rossell India Ltd posted at 91, made high of 131.85. Up 44.89%.

These stocks have performed well and I take this opportunity to write about a new interesting stock in the TEA sector named: B&A LTD.

I believe TEA sector is going to be a big story in 2017, Same like what Sugar did in 2016.
As per cycle tracking, we are done with Sugar > Paper and now its turn of Tea & Plantations.

B&A Ltd is a Tea company that operates 7 Tea Estates in Assam. The company also has resorts and etc with obviously a good Land Bank.
Till latest December 2016 quarter, B&A is having a standalone EPS of somewhere near 49, last year during the march quarter price for Tea were low but this time the Tea prices are holding up strong (http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=tea&months=240&currency=inr) so if we assume that they declare good number of March Quarter and do the EPS of around 15 their full year number will increase to an EPS of 64 plus consolidated additional gains should be able to take it close to 68-70 so if we assume a good quarter for March 17 the Annual Eps for FY17 will close close to Rs 70.

There already are news of production cuts of Tea from Kenya and Africa and the Tea Prices are expected to show strong up-trend this year.

While other stocks have already given 35-40% returns, I believe a much bigger opportunity is there in B&A LTD because of its profit making record.

Same as Sugar at the peak of a Cycle, The P/E valuation TEA Sector can command would be in the 10-15 range so if we assume that B&A LTD can seriously clock an EPS of close to 70 the peak p/e valuation of 10-15 will give the stock a very healthy price and at 70 Crores Market Cap I guess this is one of the cheapest Tea stock with profitable records available right now around a P/E of around 7 against FY16 earnings.

A coffee, logistic, plantation stock named Aspinwall which caught the fancy of Portfolio Manager Porinju Veilyath is trading at a valuation of 20 P/E.

Technically on the charts B&A Ltd is having a 5 year pattern breakout above 268-270. Who knows if this can be another Doubler and More for Us?








Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have B&A LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Monday, 13 February 2017

REVIEW - SINCE BEGINNING OF TIME

Dear Friends,
This blog was started on 15th October 2014.
The blog is less than 2 and a half years old now.
I thought this was a good time to check how things have fared since beginning of time.

So here is the latest review of everything that has been posted on the blog.



Total of 46 stocks were posted on the blog.
Average returns at peak is 111.69%.
Average returns at cmp is 50.97%.
So that means most of the stocks posted on the blog have doubled from the price of post.
I hope readers are happy with the posts/write-ups on the blog. Keep reading!!